Follow football with your eyes open
Real match probabilities before kickoff.
No gut feeling. Just numbers.
1.8M+
Matches analyzed
20+
Seasons
150+
Leagues
100+
Variables
Real match probabilities before kickoff.
No gut feeling. Just numbers.
1.8M+
Matches analyzed
20+
Seasons
150+
Leagues
100+
Variables
Closest matches by date. Click on a match to see full analysis and breakdown
Teams with the highest predicted chance of winning their next match.
Poisson distribution calculates the expected probability of every outcome.
Artificial intelligence continuously evaluates team performance, injuries, transfers, tactical changes and recent news.
Thousands of historical matches are used to identify long-term performance patterns
Probabilities are updated as new information becomes available before kickoff.
Our statistical model analyzes thousands of data points, including team form, head-to-head records, player availability, expected goals (xG) and situational factors. The result is a probability estimate for each possible outcome.
The model is calibrated against historical results and measured with proper scoring rules. It is a probability estimate, not a guarantee.
Market odds include a margin and reflect trading volumes. Our fair odds are the direct inverse of the modelled probability, with no margin added.
Accuracy is tracked across seasons using log loss and RPS. The model stays close to the closing line while remaining fully transparent.
Expected goals describe how many goals a team should score given the chances created. Use it to judge whether recent results were earned or lucky.
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